UConn women’s basketball 2020-21 prop bets

UConn women’s basketball is back this Saturday. To get ready for the start of a new season, our staff made their best (imaginary) bets at some key over/unders that will go a long way to deciding how successful the Huskies’ season is.

Also make sure to check out our staff roundtable predictions, five bold takes about the team, the latest episode of Chasing Perfection where we forecast the upcoming season and all our other preview coverage of the Huskies.

Christyn Williams: 20.0 points per game (14.6 last season)

Connolly: Want to hear a crazy fact? Eight players in program history have reached 20 points per game and neither Diana Taurasi nor Breanna Stewart are one of them. I guess that’s what happens when you don’t play the fourth quarter for your entire career. Having said that, I’m taking the over for Williams. She seems rejuvenated after getting some much-needed rest this offseason and should be the Huskies’ go-to player. I think Williams is fully capable of becoming one of the best players in the country this season.

Bethune: With how many scorers the Huskies have, it’s entirely possible that Christyn Williams could hit 20 points per game. Do I think she’s going to average 20 points per games though? I don’t. I think she ends up in the 18-19 point per game range with 5-6 Huskies averaging at least 10 points per game.

Dan Madigan: I’m taking the under, by a lot. Like Ian said, this UConn team is too balanced with too many weapons for Williams to do something Taurasi or Stewart never did. Plus, if UConn can get 20-30 games in this year, I’m not even sure Williams will be the team’s leading scorer. My money is on Paige Bueckers. That being said, I think 16 points per game this year is a reasonable expectation for Williams.

Megan Gauer: I’m also taking the under here. Even if Auriemma only plays a rotation that’s five to six players deep, there’s too many options on the floor for Williams to reach the 20 points mark. Also, the Huskies may need her to put up that kind of volume against big opponents, but in conference play (which is likely to be most if not all of the schedule) there will be plenty of room to reach into the bench.

Olivia Nelson-Ododa: 4.0 blocks per game (3.13 last season)

Connolly: Over. If this was a full season, I think Nelson-Ododa would break the program’s single-season shot block record of 147, set by Kiah Stokes in 2014-15. That averages out to around 4.1 blocks per game.

Bethune: I’ll stick with the under here. While she can definitely be more aggressive this season with some depth behind her, I think she’ll be a tick under.

Madigan: I’m going under. Nelson-Ododa is an elite shot-blocker, but I’m not sure she’ll stay out foul trouble in enough games to block four shots a game, especially in a shorter season where one bad game can throw per game numbers out of whack.

Megan: Under. Four blocks per game is an astoundingly high number, even for an elite shot blocker. Only five players in NCAA women’s basketball in the last five season have been able to surpass that mark, per Her Hoop Stats. Additionally, while UConn is still the clear favorite in the Big East, the competition is going to be tougher than last season’s conference play. I think her block numbers stay pretty level.

1.5 regular season losses (three last season)

Connolly: Under. Even if UConn plays Baylor, Tennessee and South Carolina, it won’t lose to the Gamecocks or Vols. The Huskies also won’t lose a Big East game. That means they’ll lose one game, max.

Bethune: I’ll take the under here. The South Carolina game is a toss up right now added with the uncertainty of who Baylor will have when they play. My prediction is they lose one non-conference game and one conference game.

Madigan: Under. I don’t think UConn will end up playing more one or two non-conference games this season, especially any that are on the road. That’s cheating a little bit I guess, but I’m sticking with it. They’re not losing a Big East game this year unless something crazy happens or they finally succumb to the dreaded at DePaul trap game I’ve talked about for no less than three years.

Megan: Agreed with everyone here, and taking the under. Even if all three non-conference games on the schedule are played or UConn at some point adds another game outside of the Big East, I don’t think they’ll play two teams that can beat them.

3.5 starting lineup combinations (four last season)

Connolly: Over. With pauses and shutdowns likely, unfortunately I think there will be a lot of minor injuries that keep players out for a game or two. Because of that, we’ll see a lot of different starting lineups.

Bethune: As along as they Huskies stay healthy this season, I see them with two-three possible lineup combinations. While we have an idea, we don’t know exactly who the starters are going to be, I can see Evina Westbrook, Aubrey Griffin and/or Aaliyah Edwards starting on any given night along with Paige Bueckers, Christyn Williams, Anna Makurat and Olivia Nelson-Ododa.

Madigan: Over. In a normal year, I think this would be less likely, but with so many pauses that could pop up alongside injuries and other things, I think we will see a few different looks. I also think it’s possible we see Aaliyah Edwards crack into the starting lineup if she plays well and the Huskies play a bigger opponent like South Carolina. That could be some serious front court size that UConn hasn’t had in years.

Megan: Over. In addition to pauses and shut downs having a hand in this, six freshman adds a lot of variability into who might start game to game. Additionally, I think the backcourt depth on this team could lead to a few different small-ball lineups starting against opponents that don’t have a lot of size inside.

7.5 players with at least 10 minutes per game (seven last season)

Connolly: Over. The four returners, Westbrook, Bueckers, Edwards, Nika Muhl and Mir McLean will all surpass that mark.

Bethune: Based on what we’ve heard so far from Geno in the extended preseason is that the Huskies seem to be eight deep in their rotation. Given that, I think it’s entirely possible that 10 players could end up averaging 10 minutes per game if the team stays healthy. The only one who finishes under a 10 minute average will be the walk-on, Autumn Chassion.

Madigan: Every year, we hear that UConn has a deep team and could play up to 10 players in most games. Every year, Auriemma relies on a small rotation to get the job done. This year won’t be any different. I’m going under with seven players over 10 minutes per game. If this does go over, it won’t be more than eight players.

Megan: Under. I think the four returners, Bueckers and Edwards are going to be the core of this team. Given the unpredictability of the season and shut downs, getting that group as many minutes on the court as possible together when games happen is going to be important with an eye to the post-season. The only other player I see possibly eclipsing that mark is Nika Muhl, but I think seven is more likely here.

1.5 All-Americans (one last season)

Connolly: Under. I think Christyn Williams earns an All-American nod but I’m not sure who else can break through. Though I’m high on Aubrey Griffin and think she could get consideration for it, I don’t know if she can do enough to grab a spot. As for Nelson-Ododa, she could make a huge leap as a junior but with so many talented bigs in the country this year, it’ll be hard for her to beat them all out.

Bethune: I’ll take the over here. I definitely think there will be at least two in Christyn Williams and Paige Bueckers. If Olivia Nelson-Ododa shows that she can continue to do what she did at the end of last year, it could even be three.

Madigan: Under. Williams is one of the best guards in the country, but probably won’t be able to put up the numbers necessary to differentiate herself from the pack playing in this balanced offense. I do think Bueckers has an outside shot, but would need to hit the ground running and avoid any poor stretches that freshmen often have. In a normal season, I’d be more optimistic for Bueckers to do this, but I think this year is too weird for anyone, let alone the top freshman in the country, to not be rusty at the start of the season.

Megan: Under. There’s too much talent spread across the country right now for me to imagine UConn landing more than one All-American this season. I think Christyn Williams will play at a level that earns her first All-American award, but that will be it for the Huskies this year.