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College basketball is officially back. Conference media days have wrapped up and we’ve seen rankings of all Division I teams from the following media outlets: CBS, ESPN, KenPom and Sports Illustrated. With the beginning of the Dan Hurley-era only a few days away, here’s where UConn and each opponent on its 2018-19 schedule appear in each of those rankings:
UConn
CBS: 64
ESPN: 117
KenPom: 102
Sports Illustrated: 84
Composite: 92
Media Day Predicted Finish: Fifth (out of 12 teams)
AAC Blogger Poll: Sixth (out of 12 teams)
Opponents
| Team | Conference | Media Day Predicted Finish | CBS | ESPN | KenPom | SI | Composite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Conference | Media Day Predicted Finish | CBS | ESPN | KenPom | SI | Composite |
| Morehead State | OVC | 10/12 | 285 | 227 | 208 | 293 | 253 |
| UMKC | WAC | 7/9 | 299 | 260 | 262 | 295 | 279 |
| Syracuse | ACC | 4/15 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 22 | 15 |
| Oregon* | Pac-12 | 1/12 | 12 | 14 | 27 | 16 | 17 |
| Iowa* | B1G | 10/14 | 59 | 44 | 35 | 63 | 50 |
| Cornell | Ivy | 6/8 | 258 | 253 | 253 | 219 | 246 |
| New Hampshite | America East | 8/9 | 286 | 314 | 308 | 309 | 304 |
| UMass-Lowell | America East | 9/9 | 315 | 297 | 310 | 318 | 310 |
| Arizona | Pac-12 | 4/12 | 42 | 64 | 76 | 49 | 58 |
| Lafayette | Patriot | 9/10 | 305 | 288 | 290 | 288 | 293 |
| Florida State | ACC | 7/15 | 19 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 17 |
| Manhattan | MAAC | 8/11 | 239 | 290 | 285 | 277 | 273 |
| Drexel | CAA | 9/10 | 264 | 270 | 295 | 259 | 272 |
| Villanova | Big East | 1/10 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 7 |
| USF | AAC | 12/12 | 192 | 269 | 287 | 246 | 249 |
| UCF | AAC | 1/12 | 31 | 67 | 70 | 40 | 52 |
| SMU | AAC | 6/12 | 78 | 55 | 37 | 121 | 73 |
| Cincinnati | AAC | 2/12 | 26 | 37 | 44 | 32 | 35 |
| Tulsa | AAC | 9/12 | 120 | 97 | 114 | 136 | 117 |
| Tulane | AAC | 10/12 | 184 | 190 | 189 | 189 | 188 |
| Wichita State | AAC | 8/12 | 99 | 74 | 72 | 87 | 83 |
| East Carolina | AAC | 11/12 | 273 | 292 | 279 | 209 | 263 |
| Temple | AAC | 6/12 | 69 | 79 | 82 | 80 | 78 |
| Memphis | AAC | 4/12 | 84 | 110 | 107 | 110 | 103 |
| Houston | AAC | 3/12 | 40 | 40 | 45 | 71 | 49 |
Analysis
Note: The NCAA Tournament selection committee now uses quadrant system to determine quality wins as opposed to just straight RPI rankings. According to Sports Illustrated, Quadrant 1 wins are those home games vs. teams RPI ranked 1-30, neutral games vs. 1-50, and away games vs. 1–75. For example, a home win against a top 30 team would qualify as a quadrant one victory. A Quadrant 2 win are those at Home against the RPI 31–75, neutral 51–100, and away victories over the RPI 76–135.
At first glance, UConn’s non-conference schedule looks great with big names like Villanova, Syracuse, Florida State and Arizona. However, after looking through the rankings, it becomes clear just how top-heavy the schedule actually is. Of the 13 non-conference opponents, there appears to be only four opportunities for a Quadrant 1 win (Villanova, Syracuse, Oregon/Iowa, Florida State).
Arizona has potential to be an opportunity for a Quadrant 2 win, but the Wildcats will likely be taking a big step back this year with an entirely different starting five from last season. In fact, Sean Miller has likened this year’s team to the 2009-10 Wildcats team that went 16-15 and missed the NCAA tournament. Outside of those five games, the rest of the non-conference schedule is made up of teams that have each been picked to finish in the bottom three of their respective conferences.
The importance of a strong non-conference schedule for UConn has been talked about ad nauseam since the Huskies have joined The American due to the lack of opportunities for quality wins in-conference. It appears to be more of the same this year, with the only potential Q1 opponent played at home will be Cincinnati. There will be opportunities on the road, but conference road wins have been hard to come by the last couple of years (5-13 with wins against USF, UCF, Temple, Tulane and East Carolina). UConn’s conference schedule should have a few opportunities for a Q2 home win, though, with home games against Houston, UCF and SMU and road games against UCF, SMU and Temple.
UConn’s early schedule does appear to be set up in a way where they could head into bigger match-ups against Syracuse, Arizona and Florida State on a roll and playing with some confidence. Although it is quite a tall task for a team coming off of back-to-back losing seasons, if UConn is able to eke out a couple of Q1 and Q2 wins in the non-conference and buoy that with a few Q2 wins in the conference, Dan Hurley could have UConn back in the NCAA Tournament in his first season at the helm.