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Eight weekends down and it all comes down to this. Going into the final series, which starts on Thursday, the UConn baseball team is 2.5 games behind first-place Tulane, who have won six of their last eight conference games.
Going into the final series, the standings in the American Athletic Conference look like this:
| Team | Record | Games Back | RPI (as of 5/16) |
| Tulane | 13-6 | - | 31 |
| East Carolina | 12-8-1 | 1.5 | 32 |
| UConn | 11-9 | 2.5 | 74 |
| Cincinnati | 11-9-1 | 2.5 | 116 |
| Houston | 10-10 | 3.5 | 75 |
| Central Florida | 8-13 | 6 | 124 |
| South Florida | 8-13 | 6 | 156 |
| Memphis | 8-13 | 6 | 220 |
UConn sweeps South Florida AND Houston sweeps Tulane AND Central Florida wins at least two against East Carolina
(First tournament game Tuesday 5/24 at 3 p.m. against No. 8 seed)
UConn finishes second if:
UConn sweeps South Florida AND Central Florida wins at least two against East Carolina OR Houston sweeps Tulane.
OR
UConn goes 2-1 against South Florida AND Central Florida sweeps East Carolina AND Cincinnati does not sweep Memphis.
(First tournament game Wednesday 5/25 at 11 a.m. against No. 7 seed)
UConn finishes third if:
UConn sweeps South Florida AND Tulane wins at least one against Houston AND East Carolina wins at least two against Central Florida
OR
UConn goes 2-1 against South Florida AND Tulane wins at least one game against Houston AND Cincinnati does not sweep Memphis AND East Carolina wins at least one game against Central Florida
OR
UConn goes 2-1 against South Florida AND Central Florida sweeps East Carolina AND Cincinnati sweeps Memphis OR Houston sweeps Tulane
OR
UConn goes 1-2 against South Florida AND Memphis wins at least two against Cincinnati OR Tulane wins at least two against Houston
OR
UConn goes 0-3 against South Florida AND Memphis sweeps Cincinnati AND Tulane sweeps Houston
(First tournament game Wednesday 5/25 at 3 p.m. against No. 6 seed)
UConn finishes fourth if:
UConn goes 1-2 against South Florida AND Houston wins at least two against Tulane OR Cincinnati wins at least two against Memphis
UConn goes 0-3 against South Florida AND Houston sweeps Tulane OR Cincinnati sweeps Memphis
(First tournament game Tuesday 5/24 at 7 p.m. against No. 5 seed)
UConn finishes fifth if:
UConn goes 1-2 against South Florida AND Houston wins at least two against Tulane AND Cincinnati wins at least two against Memphis
UConn goes 0-3 against South Florida AND Houston sweeps Tulane AND Cincinnati sweeps Memphis
(First tournament game Tuesday 5/24 at 7 p.m. against No. 4 seed)
***
The Huskies have a chance, albeit a thin one, to claim the conference regular season title. Mayhem would also have to happen for them to finish outside of the top four and not be a home team in the first game of the conference tournament. Additionally, as long as they leave Tampa with a series victory, they will play one of the bottom three teams in the first game of the double-elimination tournament, all of whom they've had success against this season.
The easiest path to get far in the tournament is key for the Huskies, whose RPI is likely not enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team. Winning the tournament and getting the automatic bid that comes with it is going to be their best chance at going to a regional for the first time since 2013.