The Football Study Hall projections for Saturday's game against Navy have UConn losing by 10. After coming pretty close through the first two games this season, the computer missed on its Week 3 prediction of a 28-point UConn loss.
Once again, the Huskies are still working through some historical data that is holding them back in the computers. After next week, the projections should be based fully on 2015 performance.
In other advanced stats news, FSH will now be offering a weekly update on every single FBS team. What does this mean? Find out next week.
Facts & Figures
6 - Navy is on a six-game winning streak heading into today – the fifth-longest winning streak in the country. This is also the number of wins Navy has in the all-time series with UConn, where it holds a 6-1 advantage.
134 - Seasons Navy football existed before joining a conference. This is the Midshipmen's inaugural season in the American Athletic Conference.
13.7 - Points per game allowed by the UConn defense through three games, good for 15th in the country. The run defense is currently 37th in the country.
23 - Tackles for UConn's leading tackler, Junior Joseph. He should have a big game today.
8 - Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo is in his eighth season coaching the Midshipmen. He holds a career 59-35 record.
Bob Diaco's Huskies have turned in increasingly impressive performances each week, to the point where more than 30,000 fans bought tickets to today's tilt with Navy – setting up for the highest attendance of the season to date.
Part of that is the improved opponent, the other part is the excitement surrounding the program after two solid wins and a close loss to a really good Missouri team. The offense has been mostly productive and has shown signs of life across the depth chart that were absent last year. The defense appears to be capable of keeping the Huskies in any game this season.
There are actually thoughts of a potential bowl game, which was not a popular topic before the season.
A win today means UConn can expect to be competitive in every game this season that isn't against BYU, Cincinnati and Temple, but it could even be capable of winning those games as well. It means UConn will go into UCF expecting to win—which is probably already the case after the Knights' loss to Furman—and that USF, East Carolina, Tulane and Houston (only because it's at home in November) are winnable. All of a sudden, winning six doesn't seem so impossible.
Win or lose, UConn is going to play a competitive game today. The difference between winning and losing will probably boil down to the offense's ability to sustain drives. There have been games when UConn's defense starts strong, but succumbs late because it is unable to stay fresh. The offense will need to give the defense time, otherwise Navy's offense will eventually prevail.
Prediction: UConn 22-21, with the Huskies winning on a fake field goal two-point conversion to win the game.
Kickoff is about 30 minutes away. Share your predictions and discuss the game's events with your fellow fan in the Open Thread!