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AAC Baseball Conference Outlook: The Final Weekend

The last regular season series of the year begin today, and an AAC regular season championship is on the line. We take a look at where each team sits, and predict the finish.

Thomas Campbell-USA TODAY Sports

The final weekend of the college baseball regular season is underway. While there are two clear front runners, six of the American Conference's eight teams have a chance at taking the regular season title including UConn.

The first tiebreaker in the standings is head to head, and the second tiebreaker is unknown as of this moment. This could be an issue with the logjam that is the middle of the pack right now, but I suppose that the conference is going to deal with that when the time comes.

The conference tournament will begin on Tuesday, May 19 in Clearwater, Florida at 3:00 p.m.

Front Runners

Houston 37-17 (13-8) RPI - 15

UConn (May 14-16, won Game 1)

Houston has remained the best overall team in the AAC and come into the final weekend with a one game lead over East Carolina. The Cougars took two of three from both Tulane, and ECU in their last two weekend series, and are coming off an impressive midweek win at Rice (21 in the RPI). Because of their series victory against ECU, Houston holds the tiebreaker and they can clinch the AAC regular season championship, no matter what the Pirates do, by taking two of three from the Huskies.

East Carolina 34-20 (12-9) RPI - 43

At Cincinnati (May 14-16, won Game 1)

Despite losing the tiebreaker to Houston, the Pirates have a terrific chance to sneak into the top spot in the conference if UConn can help them out. East Carolina faces a Cincinnati team that has lost its last six games, and its last seven home games including a 5-1 loss to bitter inner city rival Xavier on Tuesday. They will need a sweep and a series win from the Huskies.

In the Hunt

Now here is where things get really interesting. All four of these teams had a chance to sneak into the regular season title before Houston beat UConn last night in extra innings. They could also pass ECU if the Pirates lose their next two. Memphis can take the top spot if Houston loses two and ECU drops at least one at Cincinnati.

Memphis 35-17 (12-10) RPI - 41

Tulane (May 14-16, won Game 1)

Memphis has put themselves in the best position of any of these logjam teams by taking series from the top two teams in the American. Unfortunately, they only went 2-4 in two series against last place Cincinnati, so they need help getting into the top two. The Tigers hold the tiebreaker over the other three teams they are tied with, except for UCF, who sits two games behind them.

Tulane 31-21 (11-11) RPI - 39

At Memphis (May 14-16, lost Game 1)

After a pivotal series win at home against USF, the Green Wave have another big series against Memphis. Tulane also holds a tiebreaker against UCF. They take the third spot with a series win, but it would be very difficult for them to advance much further.

USF 30-22-1 (11-11 AAC) RPI - 26

UCF (May 14-16, lost Game 1)

USF is reeling a bit, having lost eight of their last ten including losing two of three to both Tulane and UCF on the road. This week they will see the Golden Knights again; at home this time. They have the tiebreaker over ECU and UConn, so they have a small chance to advance to as high as second place, but could also drop to second to last place if they get swept this weekend.

UConn 33-20 (11-11) RPI - 45

At Houston (May 14-16, lost Game 1)

After three tough series losses in a row vs. Memphis, and twice against ECU, the Huskies took care of business by sweeping Cincinnati at home for their first home conference series win of the year. UConn kept the momentum rolling with a win at Rhode Island and now had a small chance at the regular season conference title before the loss to Houston last night. The Huskies would have needed to sweep Houston, have the Bearcats take two of three from ECU, and get losses from Memphis and USF. At least, after last night's close game, we'll have a chance to evaluate the Huskies against the best team in the conference heading into the AAC Tournament.

Projected Finish

1. Houston 15-9

2. ECU 15-9

3. Memphis 13-11

4. USF 13-11

5. UConn 12-12 (Tiebreaker)

6. Tulane 12-12

7. UCF 10-14

8. Cincinnati 6-18