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Week 14 AAC Picks and Predictions

Mike is 60-47-2 picking AAC games this year, here are his Week 14 Picks

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Connecticut (2-8, 1-5 American) at Memphis (8-3, 6-1 American)

This is actually a revenge game for the Tigers, as the Huskies dominated the Tigers to the tune of 45-10 last year in East Hartford. Memphis is one of the most well-rounded teams in the conference – and possibly country. This is the last regular season game of the year for Memphis, who has a chance of at least a share of the American Conference championship. Only two of Memphis’ 11 games have stayed under 44 pts. Six out of the 10 games that UConn has played has gone over 44 points. I referenced this before, eight of Memphis’ 11 games have had less points scored in the second half. Half UConn’s games have had less points in the second half than the first half. I believe that this game will such a blowout that it will happen again in this game. The first half over of 22.5 and -13 isn’t a bad play, but I’m going on a hunch of the over in the game.

Pick: Over 44
Pick: Memphis -21
Pick: Second half under (I assume it’ll be between 21 and 23)

Houston (6-4, 4-2) at Southern Methodist (0-10, 0-6)

SMU allows 44.1 points per game (ppg) and only scores 9.7 ppg. Although, the Mustangs are improving on offense, as they averaged 3 ppg in their first four games and have averaged 14.2 over the last two games. However, SMU is still a mess on defense as they have given up a minimum of 38 points in every game, but one this year – USF managed only 14. At this point the smart play is playing the over – SMU has been so bad that the over is usually hit by the other team. My guess is a 43-7 Houston victory. This looks like an 0-4 or 4-0 game.

Pick: First half Houston -13.5
Pick: First half over 25
Pick: Houston -21.5
Pick: Over 49.5

East Carolina (7-3, 4-2) at Tulsa (2-9, 2-5)

As I have said all year, the best way to defeat East Carolina is by throwing the ball. Tulsa is very good at throwing the ball. The Golden Hurricanes are 34th in the country in passing yards. All three of ECU’s losses this year have been on the road. In their two other games on the road, ECU upset – does not look like that good of a win now – Virginia Tech and defeated USF by only 11.

Last week when ECU hosted Tulane and Tulane’s quarterback Tanner Lee threw for 301 yards. If you take out the double-OT game, the highest amount of yards that Lee had thrown for against an FBS team was 237 yards. Tulsa’s Dane Evans is a better quarterback than Lee. ECU loves to throw the ball, so it will be a shootout.

Pick: First half Tulsa +10.5
Pick: Fist half over 34.5
Pick: Tulsa +17.5
Pick: Over 67.5

Cincinnati (7-3, 5-1) at Temple (5-5, 3-3)

Temple is one game away from bowl eligibility, but how good are the Owls really? If you take out the game where they got extremely luck against ECU – dominated in the stats, but won the turnover battle 5-0 – the teams that Temple has defeated are 9-35. Four of those nine victories that Temple’s opponents have were against FCS schools. The other five teams were Tulane, SMU, UCF, UMass and Old Dominion. Temple has loss by an average of 13.6 ppg. I feel like every game for Temple has had an over/under of 59, yet they have had not a single game go over 59. Six of Cincinnati’s 10 games have stayed under 59 points.  I don’t think Temple has enough firepower to keep up with Cincinnati, unless Gunner Kiel is not playing.

Pick: Cincinnati -6.5
Pick: Under 58