College Football Week 10: Against the Spread and TV Schedule, Timing

UCF at UConn

UConn is coming off their first against the spread win all season!! And Chandler Whitmer threw for 303 yards- he threw for at least HALF of that in only two of the previous six games. Whitmer also ran for the 35 yards. I think Whitmer is a decent enough quarterback when he has enough time, but I cannot imagine (I hope I am wrong) him putting up those kind of numbers again. He averaged 16.83 yards per completion. Whitmer has only had two games all year in which he averaged less than 13 yards per completion.

Justin Holman, Blake Bortles' replacement at UCF, has been very hit or miss this year. He has thrown under 19 passes in four of UCF's seven games - completing less than 10 in all of those games. However, in the three other games he threw the ball at least 36 times.

UConn has been outscored 73-16 in the first quarter this year. Remember though, the majority of those points allowed in the first quarter was because the defense scored on a fumble recovery or interception on the Husky's first drive. UCF had only scored 16 points in the first quarter all year until last week's game. UCF doubled their output on the season by scoring 17.

UCF is 10-2 over the last two seasons in one-possession games. 20 games have been played in that span. So it seems the Knights have a tendency play up or down to their competition. The last game on the road that UCF won by more than a touchdown was Sept. 6, 2013 - eight road games ago - when they defeated in-state foe FIU. On top of that, UCF did not play well in cold weather last year- it is one of the reasons that UCF only won by a field goal over USF - I was at that game, it was actually freezing. The weather on Saturday is supposed to be a high of 50 with 11-mile per hour wind. Between the question of what kind of offense does George O'Leary come out with on Saturday and which Whitmer will show up, this is a tough game to pick.

I have been debating this all week if I want to make this a pick (and have it count toward my record) or if I should just lean one way. I warn you, tread lightly and part of me feels like I am picking this with my heart than my brain.

Last little tidbit. The over/under for this game is set 39 - which makes you wonder how low the game against SMU will be. It would be the 22^nd closing total below 40 in the last five years. The under is 12-9 in those games. Speaking of SMU, the Huskies and Mustangs are the only two teams in the country not have scored over 100 total points this season. #AmericanRising

Pick: First half UConn +6.5
Pick: First half under 20.5

Tulsa at Memphis

The Tigers lead the all-time series 14-10, but have lost four straight against Tulsa. Memphis won last week and will buck the trend of alternating wins and losses this week when they take on Tulsa at home on Friday night. In Tulsa's three road games they have lost by an average of 21.67 points to Temple, Colorado State and Florida Atlantic. They are coming off of a bye, but the last time out they gave up more than USF's season average of yards in one half and blew a 20-point halftime lead. Tulsa has been so bad they were +1 in the turnover the department, but lost by eight to USF, were +2 against Temple, but lost by 11. Keevan Lucas has caught 809 of the teams' 2,012 receiving yards and eight of the teams' 12 receiving touchdowns. Stop Lucas and the well-rounded Memphis offense should take care of the rest. The first half is a good number - anything more would make me nervous. With the Tigers' solid ground attack, the barrage in the second half should continue. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tigers reach 600 total yards in this game. I lean toward the over of 61 in the game, but wills stick with

Pick: First half Memphis -14
Pick: Memphis -24

Cincinnati at Tulane

Tulane has won six of the last seven meeting and lead the all-time series 11-3. Sure Tulane plays better at home than on the road, but that is about all of the positives that I can think of for Tulane right now. Tulane has played in two (regulation games) out of seven that went over 56 - at Duke, the teams combined for 60 points and hosting Georgia Tech, where the teams combined for 59 points. As bad as Cincinnati's defense has been, the Bearcats have actually played four of their seven games under 55 points. The three games that the Bearcats played over 55 points were against Miami, Ohio State and Toledo. Tulane's offense is not even close to any of those three offenses' ability. This is not only the most perplexing AAC line of the year, but also the most confusing NCAA football spread of the year. Although, I believe the entire game spread is the best play, I will pick Cincy in the first half too. I could picture me correctly picking two games correct this whole week or only missing two games.

Pick: First half Cincinnati -3
Pick: Cincinnati -4
Pick: Under 58

East Carolina at Temple

Temple's quarterback P.J. Walker has taken a huge step back this year. He was almost as good as Houston's John O'Korn who has played terrible this year. The Owls have scored eight non-defensive touchdowns this year, but they have not played a game that went over a total of 59 points this year. ECU has played in two games this year that have gone over 59 total points - 111 points hosting UNC and 69 points hosting SMU. I want to reiterate a point that I made last week. The teams - Vanderbilt, Delaware State, Connecticut and Tulsa - that Temple has defeated this year are a combined 6-25. Four of those six wins are against FCS schools, the other two come from Tulane in double overtime and UMass. Last week should have been ECU's wake up call.

Pick: First half East Carolina -4.5
Pick: Under 60

Houston at South Florida

Last week I picked USF and the over in a USF game - which is against my beliefs. If you watched the game - I'm sure you didn't - the Bulls squandered so many chances to put up points as they had six fumbles - only lost two of them - and threw two interceptions. USF forced three turnovers, but were not able to do much with their opportunities. USF's best player, Andre Davis, is suspended for the first half of this game. I am back on picking against USF bandwagon and the under.

Pick: First half Houston -5
Pick: First half under 22.5