Tulane (2-4) at Central Florida (3-2)
UCF is 9-2 over the last two seasons in one - possession games. 18 games have been played in that span. So, the Knights always seem to play up or down to their competition. Overall, UCF is 15-3 in that span. In the six games that they won that were not one score games, four were at home (Akron, Connecticut, Rutgers, Bethune Cookman), one was away (FIU) and one was a neutral site game (Baylor). The victories in the home games were by 31, 45, 24 and 34 points. The away game was by 38 and the neutral site game was by 10.
Last week: UCF was -2 in turnover differential and won by seven and outgained BYU 389 to 342. Tulane was +3 in turnover differential, but yet only won by nine over UConn. The Green Wave were just 3 for 13 on third downs. UConn was able to make seven trips in Tulane territory, but punted the ball three times, turned the ball over three times and kicked a field goal once. When (not if, but when) UCF gets these opportunities they will score much more than three points. Turnovers usually come close to equaling out. So, I do not believe UCF will be -2, nor do I believe Tulane will be +3 in that department.
Stats: In week 5, I gave that stat: "In four games outside of the state of Louisiana last year, Tulane went 0-4 (Syracuse, Florida Atlantic, Texas-San Antonio and Rice), losing by a combined score of 113 to 54 (28.25 to 13.5 average)." Tulane has continued that trend this year, as they are 0-3 outside the state of Louisiana, losing by a score of 116 to 50 (an average of 38.7 to 16.7). Even Tulane's special teams has been...well...special...Andrew DiRocco - the kicker - hit a career long last week of 38-yards! He is now 2 for 6 on the year at field goals and 16 for 20 at extra points.
I like the under of 22 in the first half because I think UCF comes out a bit slow after the win last week, but in the end I absolutely love this play as I believe UCF annihilates Tulane in the game.
Pick: UCF -19.5
Cincinnati (2-3) at Southern Methodist (0-5)
As a UConn fan, I yearn to watch teams that score points (Note: I recently learned that touchdowns are seven points). Hey, we have a good defense and terrible offense! I digress. Both of these teams' defenses must think that they are playing two-hand touch football because these defenses are atrocious. The Bearcats are last in the AAC in total defense - giving up 573.6 yards per game, while letting up just over 40 points per game. The Mustangs are last in the league in scoring defense - giving up 49.4 ppg - and second to last in yards allowed per game at 557.
On the other side of the ball, SMU is the only team in FBS to be scoring less than 10 points per game, while ranking next-to-last in total offense (243. 4 yards per game). But the Mustangs might have found their niche last game by letting Garrett Krstich air it out. Allowing him to throw the ball 67 times, resulting in a yardage total for what was more than half of the Mustangs' passing output in the first four games combined. The Bearcats do have a heck of an offense, second in the AAC at 430 yards per game and fourth in scoring at 33 points per game.
SMU has yet to allow less than 43 points in a game. The Bearcats have yet to allow less than 24 point in a game. Let's continue the count that we have been doing since the beginning of the season. Since SMU quarterback Garrett Gilbert was injured last year - just before halftime - in the third to the last game of the season, SMU has scored just 62 points in the last 26 quarters. Over that period, SMU opponents have scored 304 points.
The only way that this doesn't go over is if SMU doesn't do their part in the scoring and if that happens, then the Bearcats easily cover. I can't go worse than 1-1 in this game, right?
Pick: Cincinnati -13.5
Pick: Over 62
|Fri, Oct 17, 2014||Time (ET)||TV|
|Fresno State @ Boise State||8:00 PM||ESPN|
|Temple @ Houston||9:00 PM||ESPNU|
|Sat, Oct 18, 2014||Time (ET)||TV|
|Iowa @ Maryland||12:00 PM||ESPN2|
|Furman @ South Carolina||12:00 PM||SECN|
|Syracuse @ Wake Forest||12:00 PM||ESPN3/ESPNGP|
|(4) Baylor @ West Virginia||12:00 PM||FS1|
|Purdue @ Minnesota||12:00 PM|
|(14) Kansas State @ (11) Oklahoma||12:00 PM||ESPN|
|Western Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic||12:00 PM||AMSN|
|Texas-San Antonio @ Louisiana Tech||12:00 PM||FSN|
|Tulane @ UCF||12:00 PM||ESPNU|
|South Florida @ Tulsa||12:00 PM||ESNN|
|Virginia @ Duke||12:30 PM||ESPN3/ESPNGP|
|Western Michigan @ Bowling Green||2:00 PM||ESPN3/ESPNGP|
|Akron @ Ohio||2:00 PM||ESPN3|
|Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts||3:00 PM||ESPN3|
|Appalachian State @ Troy||3:00 PM||ESPN3|
|(24) Clemson @ Boston College||3:30 PM||ESPNU|
|(8) Michigan State @ Indiana||3:30 PM||ESPN|
|Army @ Kent State||3:30 PM||ESPN3|
|North Carolina State @ Louisville||3:30 PM||ESPN3/ESPNGP|
|Rutgers @ (13) Ohio State||3:30 PM||ABC/ESPN2|
|(21) Texas A&M @ (7) Alabama||3:30 PM||CBS|
|Kansas @ Texas Tech||3:30 PM||FSN|
|UCLA @ California||3:30 PM||ABC/ESPN2|
|UAB @ Middle Tennessee||3:30 PM||FCS|
|New Mexico @ Air Force||3:30 PM||ROOT|
|Ball State @ Central Michigan||3:30 PM||ESPN3|
|Cincinnati @ Southern Methodist||3:30 PM||CBSS|
|(10) Georgia @ Arkansas||4:00 PM||SECN|
|(15) Oklahoma State @ (12) TCU||4:00 PM||FS1|
|San Jose State @ Wyoming||4:00 PM||ESPN3|
|Miami (OH) @ Northern Illinois||5:00 PM||ESPN3|
|New Mexico State @ Idaho||5:00 PM||ESPN3|
|Colorado @ (22) USC||6:00 PM||PAC12|
|(25) Marshall @ FIU||6:00 PM|
|Missouri @ Florida||7:00 PM||ESPN2|
|Georgia Tech @ North Carolina||7:00 PM||ESPNU|
|Tennessee @ (3) Mississippi||7:00 PM||ESPN|
|Southern Miss @ North Texas||7:00 PM||AMSN|
|Utah State @ Colorado State||7:00 PM||CBSS|
|Kentucky @ LSU||7:30 PM||SECN|
|(19) Nebraska @ Northwestern||7:30 PM||BTN|
|Georgia State @ South Alabama||7:30 PM||ESPN3|
|(5) Notre Dame @ (2) Florida State||8:00 PM||ABC|
|Iowa State @ Texas||8:00 PM||LGHN|
|Washington @ (9) Oregon||8:00 PM||FS1|
|Nevada @ Brigham Young||10:15 PM||ESPN2|
|(23) Stanford @ (17) Arizona State||10:30 PM||ESPN|
|Hawaii @ San Diego State||10:30 PM||CBSS|