Last game, I correctly predicted UConn throwing another pick-six in their first couple of drives. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that there won't be a defensive of touchdown by Tulane in the first few possessions. We might turn it over, but we won't let the defense score. Improvement!
The coolest part about this game is that we might get to play against JOE MONTANA! Well, his son at least. The second coolest part about this game is that if the game was played last year we would be playing in the Superdome!
The way that you defeat Tulane is by throwing the ball. Unfortunately, UConn is not very good at that. Tulane is only good at running the ball with their freshman Sherman Badie - who is averaging 7.6 yards per carry on 60 attempts. UConn is good against the run - ranking ninth over the last three games, giving up 83.7 yards per game and allowing 114 yards per game on the season, good for 24th in the country. The Huskies are 26th in the nation in total defense and 82nd in scoring defense.
Tulane has outscored their opponents in the first half by a score of 83 to 81, but have been outscored in the second half (including their one overtime game) 93 to 23. UConn has been outscored in the first half 80 to 39 and have been ummm...less bad in the second, only being outscored 62-35. Although, I believe we will be losing at halftime, don't give up hope in the second half. We can do this! This season college football teams playing as a road dog after a loss at home have gone 68 percent against the spread, but are lifetime 49.4 percent. Don't give up hope!
Penn State/Michigan and FIU/Texas-San Antonio are the only two games this week that have a lower over/under. This game somehow opened with an over/under of 47 and has been bet all the way down to 42. I can't believe I'm picking the "over" for an UConn game.
Pick: First half Tulane -1.5
Pick: First half over 20
Pick: Second half under (I assume it will be about 20)
Tulsa (1-4) at Temple (3-1)
Temple has scored this year on one blocked punt return, one punt return, three fumble recoveries for a touchdown and two interceptions returned for a score. SEVEN NON-OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS IN FOUR GAMES! Temple defeated UConn by 26 despite a terribly played first half. If the Owls can put together two good halves, this game won't be close.
Tulsa is just flat out bad. The Golden Hurricanes have turned the ball over 13 times in 5 games, while only forcing four turnovers. Four of Tulsa's five opponents have gone over 500 total yards in the game - averaging 511 per game. The least amount of yards Tulsa has given up was 409 yards to Texas State - in which Tulsa lost. Tulsa has gone to overtime in two of their five games this year. There were 37 overtime points scored in the game against Texas State and 13 scored in the game against Tulane.
Between so many non-offensive touchdowns and people only looking at the final scores of games (and not if they went to over time or not), the under seems like a smart play. The most points scored in a Temple game this year is 59 - against an FCS opponent. Against an FBS opponent the most was 55. If you take out the overtime points, the scores in Tulsa games have combined for 56, 59, 71, 34 and 59. Last year, both of these teams each played in three games - out of 12 - that went over 59 points. My favorite pick this week is the over/under in this game.
This game opened up with Temple as 12.5-point favorites and has gone up all the way to 17.
Pick: Temple -17
Pick: Under 59
Cincinnati (2-2) at Miami (3-3)
Miami is 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road. Both of these teams are coming off losses and had both teams had the ball for only 19 minutes in their last game. The Hurricanes scored 17 points in 44 plays. The Bearcats scored 14 points in 65 plays. Both of these teams have had high scoring first halves - Miami games average 29.2 points per game (ppg) in the first half and Cincinnati games average 44.5 ppg. Both teams have considerably lower second half totals - Miami games average 21.2 ppg and Cincinnati games average 25.5 ppg.
The Bearcats have given up an average of 339.5 rushing yards AND 320.5 passing yards over the last two games - at Ohio State and hosted Memphis. In the Bearcats first game of the year against Toledo, they allowed 323 passing yards and 240 yards rushing. Add onto the fact that the Bearcats are will probably be without their starting quarterback in Gunner Kiel, this game could get pretty ugly, pretty quickly. Munchie Legaux takes over, but has completed only 51.6 percent of his 415 passes in his career. He also has thrown 20 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. It might be a different game without Kiel behind center, but I'll follow the numbers. This game opened as 11-point favorites for Miami, but has gone up to 17. Without Gunner, I still don't think it is enough.
Pick: Miami -17
Pick: First half over 28
Pick: Second half under (I assume it will be somewhere around 30).
East Carolina (4-1) at South Florida (2-3)
South Florida is coming off a bye after hanging tough at Wisconsin, while East Carolina had a closer game than anticipated with Southern Methodist. SMU threw the ball 67 times to keep it "close" - they still lost by 21. This is ECU's first away game that is not against a ranked team. The Pirates average 26.2 first half points, while the Bulls average 19.4 ppg.
Although, USF's coach, Willie Taggart, is 8-3 vs. the spread as a double-digit road dog, USF is still 12-25-1 ATS the spread the last 38 overall and 6-21-1 ATS the last 28 at home. The Bulls do get senior wide receiver, Andre Davis, back from injury. He led the Bulls in receiving the last two seasons. USF has lost three of their last four and have not scored more than 17 in any of those games, while averaging 233 yards of offense. If USF tries to throw the ball as much as SMU did, then USF is in trouble. Over their last three games they have COMBINED to throw the ball 57 times.
This game opened up as ECU favored by 14 and has gone up to 17. This is still not enough points. I'm doubling down on this game.
Pick: First half ECU -9.5
Pick: ECU -17
Houston (2-3) at Memphis (3-2)
I'm going to park this right here and slowly walk away. The John O'Korn bandwagon ran out of gas early last week. O'Korn was benched in favor of Greg Ward Jr, who will start this week against Memphis. Against UCF, Greg Ward Jr. caught a pass for 36 yards, had nine carries and threw the ball 17 times. He also had fumbled the ball into the endzone with seconds remaining that cost Houston the comeback victory. Houston actually doubled the UCF in first downs and had 103 more yards, while running 21 more plays. The Cougars were -2 in turnovers that cost them the game.
Memphis has alternated wins and losses this season - winning their last game. Houston has also alternated losses and win this season - losing their last one. Does the trend continue? This game seems like a letdown game after Memphis smoked Cincinnati last week 41-14; however, with a bye on the horizon and this game being back home I do not think that happens. The Tigers will keep rolling. I lean toward the under of 48.
These teams have met three times since 2009. Houston has won all three games. Winning 25-15, 56-17 and 55-14. I hate picking chalk in all of these games, but it almost seems like last basketball season, where the top part of the AAC is so much more dominant than the bottom part of the conference.
Pick: Memphis -7
|Thu, Oct 9, 2014||Time (ET)||TV|
|Brigham Young @ UCF||7:30 PM||ESPN|
|Fri, Oct 10, 2014||Time (ET)||TV|
|Washington State @ (25) Stanford||9:00 PM||ESPN|
|San Diego State @ New Mexico||9:30 PM||ESPNU|
|Fresno State @ UNLV||10:00 PM||CBSS|
|Sat, Oct 11, 2014||Time (ET)||TV|
|Rice @ Army||12:00 PM|
|Louisiana-Monroe @ Kentucky||12:00 PM||SECN|
|Cincinnati @ Miami (FL)||12:00 PM||ESPN3/ESPNGP|
|(1) Florida State @ Syracuse||12:00 PM||ESPN|
|Indiana @ Iowa||12:00 PM||ESPNU|
|Northwestern @ Minnesota||12:00 PM||BTN/BTN2|
|(13) Georgia @ (23) Missouri||12:00 PM||CBS|
|West Virginia @ Texas Tech||12:00 PM||FS1|
|Illinois @ Wisconsin||12:00 PM||ESPN2|
|Middle Tennessee @ Marshall||12:00 PM||FSN|
|Tulsa @ Temple||12:00 PM||ESPNN|
|Texas @ (11) Oklahoma||12:00 PM||ABC/ESPN3|
|Duke @ (22) Georgia Tech||12:30 PM||ESPN3/ESPNGP|
|Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan||1:00 PM||ESPN3|
|Miami (OH) @ Akron||2:00 PM||ESPN3|
|Massachusetts @ Kent State||2:00 PM||ESPN3|
|Bowling Green @ Ohio||2:00 PM||ESPN3|
|Arkansas State @ Georgia State||2:00 PM||ESPN3|
|Western Michigan @ Ball State||3:00 PM||ESPN3|
|New Mexico State @ Troy||3:00 PM||ESPN3|
|Louisville @ Clemson||3:30 PM||ESPNU|
|Virginia Military @ Navy||3:30 PM||CBSS|
|Boston College @ North Carolina State||3:30 PM||ESPN3/ESPNGP|
|North Carolina @ (6) Notre Dame||3:30 PM||NBC|
|(8) Michigan State @ Purdue||3:30 PM||ABC/ESPN2|
|(9) TCU @ (5) Baylor||3:30 PM||ABC/ESPN2|
|Toledo @ Iowa State||3:30 PM||IAST|
|(2) Auburn @ (3) Mississippi State||3:30 PM||CBS|
|(12) Oregon @ (18) UCLA||3:30 PM||FOX|
|North Texas @ UAB||3:30 PM||AMSN|
|Liberty @ Appalachian State||3:30 PM||ESPN3|
|Chattanooga @ Tennessee||4:00 PM||SECN|
|(16) Oklahoma State @ Kansas||4:00 PM||FS1|
|Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois||5:00 PM||ESPN3|
|(7) Alabama @ Arkansas||6:00 PM||ESPN|
|Washington @ California||6:00 PM||PAC12|
|Idaho @ Georgia Southern||6:00 PM||ESPN3/ESPNGP|
|Penn State @ Michigan||7:00 PM||ESPN2|
|FIU @ Texas-San Antonio||7:00 PM||FCS|
|(19) East Carolina @ South Florida||7:00 PM||ESPNU|
|Houston @ Memphis||7:00 PM||CBSS|
|LSU @ Florida||7:30 PM||SECN|
|Charleston Southern @ Vanderbilt||7:30 PM||ESPN3/ESPNGP|
|Old Dominion @ UTEP||8:00 PM||AMSN|
|Connecticut @ Tulane||8:00 PM||ESPNN|
|(3) Mississippi @ (14) Texas A&M||9:00 PM||ESPN|
|Air Force @ Utah State||10:15 PM||ESPNU|
|USC @ (10) Arizona||10:30 PM||ESPN2|
|Colorado State @ Nevada||10:30 PM||CBSS|
|Wyoming @ Hawaii||11:59 PM|