Losing to West Virginia last night stung. If the Huskies had been able to pull out a win they would have secured a bye in the first round of the Big East tournament. Now, sitting at 9-8 in the conference the Huskies are in danger of finishing as low as 11th if they lose to Notre Dame on Saturday. All is not lost though because with a win UConn still has a pretty good shot at securing a bye. Let's run down how the season could end.
First off, here are the current standings:
6. West Virginia 10-7
7. Cincinnati 10-7
8. Georgetown 10-7
9. UConn 9-8
10. Villanova 9-8
11. Marquette 9-8
For your reference, here's how everyone finishes up the season:
West Virginia vs. Louisville
Cincinnati vs. Georgetown
Georgetown @ Cincinnati
UConn vs. Notre Dame
Villanova @ Pittsburgh
Marquette @ Seton Hall
Assuming UConn wins on Saturday, there are 12 different ways the conference could end up. They're all after the break.
To start, here's a quick primer on the Big East tiebreaker: if two teams are tied you use the head-to-head record. If more than two teams are tied you go to a mini-conference. Luckily, a lot of the mini-conferences favor UConn.
Since it's the only game between two teams in UConn's "group" I'll base the scenarios around the Georgetown vs. Cincinnati Matchup. Remember, for all of these scenarios, we're assuming UConn wins.
If Georgetown wins:
and West Virginia, Marquette and Villanova lose:
UConn, Cincinnati and West Virginia all tie. The tiebreaker gives West Virginia the 7 seed and UConn the 8 seed.
and West Virginia wins; Marquette and Villanova lose:
UConn wins the tiebreaker over Cincinnati and gets the 8 seed.
and Marquette wins; West Virginia and Villanova lose:
West Virginia and Marquette both win tiebreakers over UConn. UConn gets the 9 seed.
and West Virginia and Marquette win; Villanova loses:
UConn wins a tiebreaker over Cincinnati and Marquette. UConn gets the 8 seed.
and Marquette and Villanova win; West Virginia loses:
There is a five-team tie. Villanova grabs the 7 seed and UConn gets the 8 seed.
and West Virginia, Marquette and Villanova all win:
UConn wins a tiebreaker over Cincinnati, Marquette and Villanova. UConn gets the 8 seed.
If Cincinnati wins:
and West Virginia, Marquette and Villanova lose:
UConn, Georgetown and West Virginia all tie. The tiebreaker gives West Virginia the 7 seed and UConn the 8 seed.
and West Virginia wins; Marquette and Villanova lose:
UConn wins the tiebreaker over Georgetown. UConn gets the 8 seed.
and Marquette wins; West Virginia and Villanova lose:
West Virginia and Marquette both win tiebreakers over UConn. UConn gets the 9 seed.
and West Virginia and Marquette win; Villanova loses:
UConn wins a tiebreaker over Cincinnati and Marquette. UConn gets the 8 seed.
and Marquette and Villanova win; West Virginia loses:
There is a five-team tie. UConn grabs the 7 seed.
and West Virginia, Marquette and Villanova all win:
UConn wins a tiebreaker over Georgetown, Marquette and Villanova. UConn gets the 8 seed.
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