One-and-Dones
by Brad Silverman on Apr 8, 2011 1:22 PM EDT
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PrintImmediately after the game on Monday, I began my long drive back to Chicago from Houston. Driving 18 hours straight is a learned skill, you see, and one thing I've learned is to utilize the radio to keep you awake and alert. Music is bad, talk shows are better, sports talk is best. From 11:00 PM Monday to 7:00 PM Tuesday, I listened to a variety of sports talk on XM's 5 such stations.
The running theme of this particular night's post-game shows was that One-and-Dones have "diluted the quality of the game". While I disagree with this sentiment, it did get me thinking: Has Uconn ever had a One-and-Done?
The answer is NO.
But is Uconn unique in this regard? How does Uconn compare to the other elite programs with respect to keeping its players in school for a minimum of two years? Hit the jump to find out.
Uconn and Maryland are the only elite college basketball programs to have not had a One-and-Done.
Note: for the following, I've used data from the past 15 seasons (1996-), an arbitrary time that I consider "modern" college basketball. There are two reasons for this: 1) I don't want Holy Cross, San Francisco, CCNY (4 combined NCAA championships) and their ilk mucking up the analysis; 2) There were very few One-and Dones (at most 2 in a year) before this era.
1. Which programs are "elite"?
a. Programs are "elite" if they've been to at least two Final Fours in the past 15 years.
b. There are 12 "elite" programs by this metric: Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, Arizona, Duke, Michigan State, Ohio State, Florida, Connecticut, Maryland, Kansas, UCLA
c. The above list pretty much passes the eye test. To make it more comprehensive, let's add Indiana and Texas to bring the total to 14. Each of these schools reached one Final Four in our time period.
2. What is a One-and-Done?
a. 5-Star (per Rivals) or equivalent recruit, who
b. left school after his Freshman year, and
c. was taken in the first round of the NBA Draft.
3*. Results:
a. Every "elite" Program besides Uconn and Maryland has had at least 1 One-and-Done player since 1996.
*Note: These results do not include the upcoming 2011 NBA draft One-and Dones (Brandon Knight, Jared Sullinger, Harrison Barnes, Kyrie Irving, etc.)
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Really enjoyed this.
Thanks. I have a question (if you still have the data to manipulate). What happens if you get rid of requirements A (5-Star recruit) and C (was taken in the first round of the NBA Draft)? I don’t know if there were any recruits that actually made the jump after the first year who weren’t 5 star recruits (or who jumped to the NBA but were selected in the second round), but I’d be curious.
Who Doesn't Like Icecreamcake?
Appreciate it.
1. If you get rid of requirement A (5-star recruit), it would only add 4 more O-and-Ds:
2006 Tyrus Thomas LSU
2001 Rodney White Charlotte
2000 Jamal Crawford Michigan
1999 Lamar Odom Rhode Island
So it would only add 4 more to ~60. One takeaway from this is that the recruiting ratings are pretty accurate, at least at the top.
2. Getting rid of requirement C (drafted in First Round) would add a few more. I can update this more fully later, but at a quick glance I see guys like Lance Stephenson (Cincinnati), Bill Walker (Kansas State), and Trevor Ariza (UCLA) that probably fit the One-and-Done mold. Ultimately, It looks like there are ~10 more if you include the Second Round
Here's the data, sorry for the poor formatting
Year Name School Draft Pick # 5-Star?
2010 Wall Kentucky 1 1
2010 Favors Georgia Tech 3 1
2010 Cousins Kentucky 5 1
2010 Henry Kansas 12 1
2010 Bledsoe Kentucky 18 1
2010 Bradley Texas 19 1
2010 Orton Kentucky 29 1
2009 Evans Memphis 4 1
2009 DeRozan USC 9 1
2009 Holiday UCLA 17 1
2009 Mullens OSU 24 1
2008 Rose Memphis 1 1
2008 Beasley Kansas State 2 1
2008 Mayo USC 3 1
2008 Love UCLA 5 1
2008 Gordon Indiana 7 1
2008 Bayless Arizona 11 1
2008 Randolph LSU 14 1
2008 Hickson NC State 19 1
2008 Koufos OSU 23 1
2008 Greene Syracuse 28 1
2007 Oden OSU 1 1
2007 Durant Texas 2 1
2007 Conley OSU 4 1
2007 Wright UNC 7 1
2007 Hawes Washington 10 1
2007 Young Georgia Tech 12 1
2007 Crittenton Georgia Tech 19 1
2007 Cook OSU 21 1
2006 Thomas LSU 4 0
2006 Williams Memphis 17 1
2005 Williams UNC 2 1
2004 Deng Duke 7 1
2004 Humphries Minnesota 14 1
2003 Anthony Syracuse 3 1
2003 Bosh Georgia Tech 4 1
2002 Wagner Memphis 6 1
2001 Griffin Seton Hall 7 1
2001 White Charlotte 9 0
2001 Randolph Michigan State 19 1
2001 Wallace Alabama 25 1
2000 Johnson Cincinnati 6 1
2000 Crawford Michigan 8 0
2000 Harvey Florida 22 1
1999 Odom Rhode Island 4 0
1999 Maggette Duke 13 1
1998 Hughes Saint Louis 8 1
1998 Davis Iowa 21 1
1997 Thomas Villanova 7 1
1996 Abdur-Rahim Cal 3 1
1996 Marbury Georgia Tech 4 1
Nice timing
For the record though, Lamb was not a 5-star recruit by anyone’s ranking, so he wouldn’t fit the criteria I used in this post.
Really interesting stuff. Certainly speaks to Calhoun developing his program in a certain way. Has he ever even had a freshman who could legitimately go to the NBA? I’m thinking Rudy Gay, maybe Charlie V…anyone else?
Thoroughly enjoying life atop the Big East.
Gay and Villanueva, for sure
No doubt these two would have been picked in the first round, if not by a lottery team, if they’d left after their Freshman years. That isn’t to say they would have been effective their first year in the league, as I remember both being quite thin even after their sophomore years.
I can’t really think of others who would’ve been sure thing first-round selections after their Freshman years. Caron Butler would have to be the most likely.
There are others Calhoun wanted that would have certainly been O-and-Ds if they’d come:
Bynum, if he’d kept his commitment.
Durant, who had us in his top-3
by Brad Silverman on Apr 21, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
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