The Odds are Even
by llimllib on Mar 23, 2011 9:57 AM EDT
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PrintRemarkably, the betting market odds for UConn's game tomorrow have stabilised at exactly even. They opened with UConn a bit ahead, but apparently the consensus believes that UConn's about 4 points better than SDSU but SDSU is playing at home.
Power ranking odds are a bit worse for the Huskies: kenpom has them as 33% to win and Nate Silver has them at 30% (though he told me on twitter that they'd be 46% on a neutral court).
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Hmm
I wonder where the 33% came from? kenpom has them at 41% here.
18-1
Nuck Fova
Edsall: Thanks for building the program, but you are a huge douche (and I hope you fail miserably in Maryland.) correction...it may have been partly Hathaway's fault, but still could have told your players in person...So I'll change my stance to: "I don't care what you do in Maryland."
1967: Embrace it
Good point
I tweeted him a question about it, we’ll see if he responds.
Has 67% for SDSU on his site:
http://kenpom.com/fanmatch.php?d=2011-03-24
?
Who Doesn't Like Icecreamcake?
by 1c3creamcake on Mar 23, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Right, that's the same % as the first link I posted
(Uconn 33% ~= SDSU 66%)
whoops
my bad
Who Doesn't Like Icecreamcake?
by 1c3creamcake on Mar 23, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
The only thing I can think of
is that he included the homecourt advantage for SDSU. Which may be likely, because in the link you have he states,
Thu Mar 24 7 San Diego St. L, 66-62 62 33% Semi-Away
Emphasis mine.
But, if he did include home court advantage, according to my calculations based upon his website, the number should be 27%. Explanation here.
No matter what it is, our chances are low based upon his statistical analysis and really I’m doing some unnecessary nitpicking. :)
18-1
Nuck Fova
Edsall: Thanks for building the program, but you are a huge douche (and I hope you fail miserably in Maryland.) correction...it may have been partly Hathaway's fault, but still could have told your players in person...So I'll change my stance to: "I don't care what you do in Maryland."
1967: Embrace it
Yup, that seems exactly right
The kenpom number includes home court advantage, the Gasaway number doesn’t.
From the bad news department
The Huskies became dogs this afternoon. I have no idea why the odds are moving, but they’re moving SDSU’s way.
Meh
I don’t read to much into betting odds myself. It’s probably just a bunch of people have been betting on UConn. Name school, hall of fame coach, superstar player, and in the news a lot recently with the BET and start to the NCAA’s. Also, as those on the West Coast always bitch about…
East Coast bias~!!!
18-1
Nuck Fova
Edsall: Thanks for building the program, but you are a huge douche (and I hope you fail miserably in Maryland.) correction...it may have been partly Hathaway's fault, but still could have told your players in person...So I'll change my stance to: "I don't care what you do in Maryland."
1967: Embrace it
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