Good Losses?
by 1c3creamcake on Feb 7, 2011 10:03 AM EST
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Print'Bad Losses' has always been one metric the selection committee uses to complete the bracket. I also think it's a really interesting way of looking at a team's season: have they won the games they were supposed to? Did they drop any unnecessary challenges? Uconn, playing with house money, hasn't dropped a single 'bad game.' Sure, they lost games they could have (and should have) won, but none of those were to bad teams. A friend and I were discussing how useful the 'bad loss' criteria is, and the following is the result of that discussion. It is the top 25 (by collegerpi.com), re-ordered according to the average RPI of a team's losses. I thought people on here might find it interesting.
| Ohio State | 0 | |
| San Diego St | 1 | |
| Utah St. | 3 | |
| Kansas | 7 | |
| Connecticut | 14.75 | |
| Pittsburgh | 15 | |
| Georgetown | 17.4 | |
| Purdue | 28.4 | |
| Notre Dame | 29 | |
| Texas | 33.33333333 | |
| Villanova | 34 | |
| Kentucky | 38.16666667 | |
| Duke | 38.5 | |
| Wisconsin | 38.6 | |
| West Virginia | 41.42857143 | |
| Syracuse | 44 | |
| Vanderbilt | 49 | |
| BYU | 50.5 | |
| North Carolina | 50.8 | |
| St. Johns | 58.33333333 | |
| George Mason | 65.6 | |
| Arizona | 67.75 | |
| Xavier | 73.16666667 | |
| Tennessee | 82.25 | |
| Florida | 90.8 |
I agree that Uconn should closed out a few games better, and that Calhoun has difficulty with any type of zone D. Nonetheless, I think this is a relatively good sign. Of teams with more than 1 loss, it's Utah St. and Uconn as #1 and #2. Take from that what you will.
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interesting way to look at the season
I guess you can say UConn hasn’t really dropped the ball yet, but damn we have come close to it.
Interesting idea and it certainly reflects the idea taht UConn hasn't lost any bad games
However, it isn’t really an accurate measure of a team like Syracuse who had one particularly bad loss that sinks them. The fact that one of the Cuse’s four losses came to a team ranked something like 90 means that losing to a team like us would perversely raise their rank.
To be fair
I agree. I thought about trying to figure out which teams had huge outliers, but I just didn’t have the energy. Nonetheless, the average does, in a weird way, show a bottoming-out. A bad syracuse team can lose to really bad team. Either we haven’t seen a bad Uconn team this season (knocks heavily on wood), or bad Uconn team doesn’t lose those games. They find a way to win.
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