FPM opponent outlook: The Michigan Wolverines
by Andrew Porter on Aug 11, 2010 10:08 AM EDT
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PrintAs part of TheUConnBlog's 2010 Season Preview Month-ish, we're counting down the days to the UConn football team's opener against Michigan. Today, we look at the Huskies' first opponent: the Michigan Wolverines. You can read all our Football Preview Month-ish posts here.
Let's just get this out of the way: I have never been as excited for a football game as I am for UConn's matchup against Michigan. Admittedly, thats not saying a ton. I'm a Broncos fan who got into the team the exact moment John Elway retired and a UConn football fan, so I haven't exactly had a ton to get worked up over. But still, there is something special about this game.
Much like last year when UConn took on Notre Dame, it does not matter that Michigan fell apart and has been struggling for the past few years. Michigan is still one of college football's blue bloods, so a win against the Wolverines (especially in front of 110,000 people as the Wolverines open their newly renovated stadium), still means a lot to a growing program like UConn's.
But Michigan's presitige isn't why I'm excited. As anyone who visits this site can tell you, the three of us think UConn has the potential to do big things this year. With the team coming off a fine end to '09, 16 returning starters and a perfect schedule, the stars seemed to be aligned in UConn's favor. However, all of our optimism is based on projections of what UConn could be. The game against Michigan will give us our first idea of what they actually are.
In a purely technical sense, this game will not have a huge effect on UConn's season. A win will not put the Huskies any closer to a Big East title, nor will a loss move them further away from it. However, as a nationally-televised game against a big-name opponent, it is impossible not to use the matchup as a leading indicator for where the Huskies could be headed. If UConn opens the season with a win, especially a convincing win, expect the hype-train we've been running around here to immediately get out of control. If the Huskies lose, you can expect a lot of people to start to reevaluate what this team is capable of. Either way, the opener against Michigan is going to set the tone for the season.
Opponent: University of Michigan Wolverines
Date / Time / TV: Saturday September 4 / 3:30 p.m. / ABC
Site: Michigan Stadium - Ann Arbor, MI (capacity 109,901)
Coach: Rich Rodriguez (8-16; 113-78-2 overall)
Team's Official Website: MGoBlue
On SBNation : Maize N Brew
Other Fansites: MGoBlog
2009 Record: 5-7 (1-7 Big Ten; no postseason)
Notable 2009 wins: 38-34 vs. (then)-#18 Notre Dame (Sept. 12)
Notable 2009 losses: None seem all that notable, but after opening 4-0, Michigan lost seven of its last 8, with the only win coming over Delaware St.
2010 Schedule:
September 4 Connecticut
September 11 @ Notre Dame
September 18 Massachusetts
September 25 Bowling Green
October 2 @ Indiana
October 9 Michigan State
October 16 Iowa
October 30 @ Penn State
November 6 Illinois
November 13 @ Purdue
November 20 Wisconsin
November 27 @ Ohio State
Know Your Enemy: Since Michigan opens their season against UConn, you won't get a chance to see them in action. However, if you want to understand what they think about us, here's Maize n' Brew's guide to (their idea of) UConn's most hatable player, Zach Frazer.
Series vs. UConn: First Meeting
2009 offensive stats: 29.5 PPG / 198.33 YPG passing / 186.16 YPG rushing
2009 defensive stats: 27.5 PPG / 221.41 YPG passing / 171.91 YPG rushing
Returning starters (offense): Seven
Returning starters (defense): Eight
Key players (offense): So. QB Tate Forcier (165-281, 2050 yds, 13 TD/10 INT in 2009; 118 rush, 240 yds, 3 TDs) So. WR Roy Roundtree (32 rec, 434 yds, 3 TDs in 2009) Sr. OT Steve Schilling (6'5", 308 lbs; 36 career starts, offensive captain)
Key players (defense): Sr. CB Troy Woolfolk (46 tackles in 2009) Sr. MLB Obi Ezeh (70 tackles, 8 TFL, 1 FF in 2009) So. NT Mike Martin (51 tackles, 8.5 TFL in 2009)
Our outlook for 2010, in 50 words or less: Middling. By most accounts Rich Rodriguez is coaching for his job, but after last year's putrid finish it is hard to imagine this time suddenly flying to the top of their conference.
What the experts say:
"Rodriguez is on the hot seat this year and luckily he does have 15 [returning starters] who were recruited for his schemes, and his team was -12 in turnovers last year." -- Phil Steele (Steele rated Michigan as his 5th-most improved team)
"...the defense it the glaring question. If it can become competent, Michigan should be able to get to a bowl game..." -- Blue Ribbon
"Rodriguez's future may hang with how much the defense grasps its new 3-3-5 scheme." -- Athlon
UConn wins if: They play up to their potential, Frazer and Jordan Todman can exploit the question marks in the Michigan defense, and the secondary looks remotely competent.
Michigan wins if: UConn's secondary is as bad as we are all afraid it is and RichRod remembers how to work his black magic against UConn.
Bottom line: If you go purely by talent and potential, UConn should win this game. There are a couple of things that give me pause though.
First of all, Rodriguez has absolutely owned UConn. The scores of his last three games against the Huskies (all as coach of West Virginia) were: 66-21, 37-11 and 45-13. Sure, this Michigan isn't as talented as those West Virginia squads, but RichRod clearly knows how to play against Randy Edsall and the Huskies.
My second concern is the atmosphere. Sure, UConn did well in front of 80,000 Notre Dame fans last year. But that was a program that was running out the clock on its season. This time UConn is playing in the opening-game of the newly-renovated 109,901-seat Michigan Stadium. Sure, just because it is the first game of the season does not mean Michigan will play well, but the atmosphere is not going to be a friend to the Huskies.
Despite those concerns, the bottom line is that UConn is the more talented team and the Huskies should win this game. Although it is by no means a lock that they will, the team better look good, because otherwise it might get pretty depressing around these parts.
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Unpleasant surprise named Denard Robinson
Your scouting report is a little out of date. The probable starter at QB is Denard Robinson who runs a 4.3 40 and whose UM fan nickname is “Dilithium” (as in Warp Speed). On the plus side for UConn fans, he was very turnover prone last year (which is why he didn’t start); one the negative side for UConn fans, he led his team to TDs on 5/6 possessions in the spring game, including a 97-yard TD completion. Go Blue!
by Fred Zimmerman on Aug 11, 2010 12:45 PM EDT reply actions
I saw enough about Denard Robinson to not be enthused about what might be coming down the pipe.
His 351 rushing yards (good for third on a team where seven players had more than 100 yds on the ground and the highest total was 502 yds) caught the eye. However, the depth charts/previews I read through for research still had Forcier sitting on top. So I left Robinson out.
This capsule preview is intended to give a quick look at UConn’s opponents and where they fit in the scheme of UConn’s schedule. We’ll be back with a fully-fleshed out preview a day or two before the game. I imagine Robinson will get a good bit of attention in that, especially if he outperforms Forcier in practice over the next few weeks.
by Andrew Porter on Aug 11, 2010 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Good preview...
This is very level-headed and accurate, in my opinion. Thanks for the preview, and best of luck on the 4th! I can’t wait!
denard
you can’t judge everything by statistics. on Denard’s first collegiate snap, he fumbled; then picked the ball up and ran for a 30 – yard broken play touchdown run. It’s been a love affair ever since. that said, you may well see a lot of Tate. He can be a very consistent and accurate passer. Key thing to watch with Denard is whether he makes any boneheaded turnovers. If he doesn’t, he can be an all-big-ten quarterback.
should be a great game. looking forward to having Connecticut in the Big House!
how’s that USC transfer Shoemate? shaping up?
Sounds exactly like someone I don't want the Huskies to have to deal with
Rodriguez used speedy QBs to torture UConn back when he was at WVU (Pat White racked up 186 yds against the Huskies in 2007’s de-facto Big East title game). With that said, our linebacking corps is our best asset and super fast. That, combined with a light, speedy D-line should help us at least limit the threat.
Shoemate has only been practicing for two days now but the early reports are positive. He’s a big back that seems committed to the team and to succeeding here. UConn is loaded in the backfield, but starter Jordman Todman is a smaller back, so Shoemate could get a chance to shoulder some of the load by providing a different look.
by Andrew Porter on Aug 11, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
really tempted to fly to the big house for this one.
"I suggest more bike" ~KSK
www.throughbucknerslegs.com
michigan fan
with a few notes/thoughts.
1) CB Donovan Warren is listed in key defensive players. He has left for the draft and Sr Troy Woolfolk will be the #1 CB.
2) There is some disagreement among the Michigan fanbase on who will/should be the starting QB. Forcier has the experience and “moxie” while Robinson has that ridiculous speed and is said to be quickly gaining ground in the passing game. Rodriguez has remained mum on the subject, so your guess is as good as anyone’s.
3) Re: the early 2009 and stumbles down the stretch, there are probably a few major factors for that last year. First, it became apparent that Forcier hurt his shoulder in the IU game. Second, losing C David Molk was a huge loss on a very inexperienced OL. The offense wasn’t the same after those two events. Finally, the defense just faded down the stretch. With the offense not producing, opponents were able to take advantage of the mediocre LB and S play.
4) Hope for the season. First, Forcier is 100% healthy, and Robinson is working hard to crack the starting lineup. Both are positive developments for Michigan. Second, Molk is healthy, the OL remains intact from last season, and everyone has another year of experience under their belts. Finally, while we lost our top and (arguably) second best defensive players, pretty much everyone else is back. The DL figures to be a strength, even without Brandon Graham. The safeties can only be better (right? please??). And Greg Robinson has taken over LB coaching duties. With another year in the scheme and coaching from GERG, we’re all hoping to see much more consistent (and good) play from that position.
Thanks
for the note about Warren, not sure how I missed that, the post has been updated.
by Andrew Porter on Aug 12, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Great write-up
I have to disagree with you about talent and potential favoring U-Conn? A team of 2/3 star players has more potential and talent than Michigan’s current team? I think if both teams play to their potential, Michigan runs away, thing is, all Michigan fans are hoping that this is the year they finally do play to their potential. Last year we underachieved to 29.5 ppg. Returning the numbers we have on offense, it should improve a few points per game. If the defense is “serviceable” I think Michigan has the upper hand. I will be there though to see first hand.
I'll grant you that Michigan clearly pulls in recruits that are
more highly regarded than the guys UConn gets. However, if those recruits consistently underperform, whereas UConn’s overperform, and do so consistently, I’m going to give UConn the nod as the more talented squad. You can’t live on your Rivals rating forever. I know UConn flys way under the national radar, but Randy Edsall has somehow developed a legitimate program in Storrs. We may be thin in the secondary, but we’re at least secure everywhere else and have some serious talent on the O-line, at running back and in the linebacker corps.
I’ll be there as well, and I can’t wait. I think it’ll be a great matchup and should be quite the game.
by Andrew Porter on Aug 12, 2010 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
No worries
The Michigan fans are living one some other planet. UConn is going to win this game easily, probably two touchdowns. I think Michigan can score but RichRod never coached against a UConn team this good and with this good of an offense.
Also, UConn has better players than Michigan. UConn has a better QB, UConn has better RBs, UConn has a MUCH better offensive line and UConn has a better front 7. UConn’s only weakness is its secondary and Michigan has two QBs who can’t throw.
Michigan is currently a 3-point favorite in Vegas and I’d be shocked if UConn isn’t favored by gametime.
called it
See comment #1, August 11. Go Blue!
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