In or out?: The quest to save face
by UConnBlog Justin on Feb 16, 2010 1:18 PM EST
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PrintJust when we had this season figured out and were anxiously awaiting the unveiling of the NIT bracket, UConn has to go and beat the No. 3 team in the nation (in both polls) and top-ranked team in the conference, on the road, by nine. The nerve.
Now, instead of just waiting for the rest of the season to play out, we can resume our bubble-watching and hopes (well, more like dreams ... wild, wild dreams) of an NCAA Tournament bid.
But what, exactly, are UConn's chances of getting in? And what will they have to do from here on out?
Although we can assume that it's still going to take a lot, we asked Chris Dobbertean of SB Nation's Blogging The Bracket for his expert opinion.
Take a look at UConn's tourney profile (which we'll probably roll out after every game, unless it loses to Rutgers), as well as the take of Chris -- who was tied up with work but nice enough to give us his quick opinion -- after the jump:
UConn Huskies
Record: 15-11, 5-8 Big East (12th)
SOS: #1
RPI: #50
Big wins: vs. Texas (88-74), at Villanova (84-75)
Bad losses: at Michigan (68-63), at Providence (81-66)
Road record: 1-6
Last 12: 4-8
Scoring margin: +4.8
Games left: 5 (at Rutgers; vs. WVU, L'Ville; at Notre Dame, USF)
Chris' take: That was a huge win for the Huskies last night, as it was both over a team who I had pegged as a 1 in my Monday bracket and on the road. The key thing is going to be momentum. If UConn can build on the performance, something they couldn't really do after the Texas win, things shape up nicely for them to make a run.
After last night, all five games have to be considered winnable, especially with toughest one, West Virginia, being at home. The Huskies would get an added boost when you consider that the Rutgers contest is the only one of the five that is against a team that's out of the NCAA hunt. Not many bubble teams will have such a scheduling advantage.
Winning all five would give the Huskies 20 victories and a 10-8 mark in the conference, with a six-game winning streak and two late marquee wins. The real question is whether this UConn team is capable of putting together that kind of run.
Thanks, Chris. And make sure to check out his latest projections on, Blogging The Bracket.
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So,
win the rest of the games, and a BET tournament run might not be needed?
Or am I putting letters in his fingers?
Fold the football program, and deposit monies previously budgeted for said program into a savings account in Coach Calbertus Magnus's name.
Great Feature
Even better if he had, you know, answered the question.
He did as well as anyone could have.
Basically, if UConn wins out, they’re in (don’t hope too hard for this one). If UConn takes 4 out of 5 (especially if one of the 4 is WVU) then they’re probably in, especially if they win in the BET.
by Andrew Porter on Feb 16, 2010 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
I should've have noted
(and will now update the post to reflect) that Chris was tied up with work and he did us a favor. But he did answer the question: If we win out, we might not need a tourney run.
by UConnBlog Justin on Feb 16, 2010 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
Not Difficult
Is UConn In or Out TODAY. Not a tough question. That’s what I was referencing him answering.
(I expect the answer to be out, as well as that winning out means the BET probably isn’t a neccesity).
Winning four out of five (especially if WVU is one of the four)
should fairly obviously put us in the Tournament, as long as we don’t lose a preliminary-round game in the BET.
Assuming a prelim win and a first round loss, UConn would be 20-13 with home wins over Texas and WVU, a road win at Villanova, a bunch of close losses to top 15 teams (all away from home), a 9-9 Big East record, a top 10 SOS and a top 45 or so RPI.
I don’t even think there’d be much question at that point, given how mediocre the bubble is this year.
Now, the reason it seems like we’re so far out of it is, well, because we’re four games over .500 at the moment and apart from last night’s awesomeness, we had lost eight of our last 11. Winning five of their last six didn’t really seem possible until last night.
I don’t know that we can count on this team to actually play consistently for the last two weeks, but make no mistake: UConn very much controls its own NCAA destiny.
Orange Bowl/dual Final Fours or bust in 2011. We're going all-in.
Agreed that we very much control our own NCAA destiny
And believe we could even mess up a little bit and get in.
Allow me to divulge some research I did on my lunch break between 11 and 2:
Michigan is a 10 seed last year at 20-13 with a one win in the Big Ten tourney
Arizona is a 12 seed last year at 19-13 with no wins in the Pac-Ten tourney
Maryland is a 10 seed last year at 20-13 with two wins in the ACC tourney
Texas, OK State, Tennesee, WVU, and BC are all in the tourney as 9 seeds or higher with some wins their respective tournaments.
In 2008, Oregon is 18-13, Kentucky is 18-12, Arizona is 19-14, Nova is 20-12, and all make the tournament with at-large bids (and not many if any wins in their respective conference tourneys, judging by the low total games played.)
I also think the one game we can lose down the stretch is WVU. The important thing is to beat Louisville, Notre Dame, and South Florida, all of which are on the bubble. Sweeping Notre Dame would be huge if we both end the season 9-9 in the conference. Going 1-1 with Louisville could also be big, because even though they’re 7-5 now they have games at Marquette and home against GTown and Cuse, so they could be looking at 9-9. South Florida has home games against Cinci, SJU Prov, and away games at Nova and Depaul, and a home game against us. They could easily finish 4-1 coming up against us. If we lose to West Virginia and win the rest, we could be playing for the NCAAs against South Florida (WTFUCK?).
Of course if we beat West Virginia (an away game in Hartford) we still have room for error, but I’d almost rather lose to them if it meant we’d definitely go 4-1.
My points are this: 20 wins and I say we’re in, no matter how we get there. But even with 19, I think we’re in good shape, especially if we win head to head with Notre Dame and South Florida. If we win out I don’t even think we need a BET win, especially since we’d have a first round bye and likely be playing another tournament team.
I have no logical reason to expect we’re going to play well down the stretch, but I expect that we play well down the stretch.
Texas, OK State, Tennesee, WVU, and BC...
All finished the season with 11 losses (Though I understand if we don’t win the BET we’ll have 12. Still an interesting statistic).
“I have no logical reason to expect we’re going to play well down the stretch, but I expect that we play well down the stretch.”
I’m on board with that type of thinking.
by Andrew Porter on Feb 16, 2010 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
Our biggest plus
Is that we don’t really have a “bad” loss. Providence and Michigan are our worst ones, and really, neither are so bad, especially considering both were away games and Providence put a hex on us.
But I like how the Nova win has turned the WVU game into a nice game to win, but not a must-win. I’m into that.
by UConnBlog Justin on Feb 16, 2010 6:50 PM EST up reply actions
They're both pretty bad losses
Michigan is hideously bad (they’re at .500 right now, barely keeping their heads above the Indiana-Iowa-Penn State troika of shit in the Big 10) and Providence is below .500 overall, despite the Curse of Ryan Gomes.
Not as bad as, like, Louisville losing to Western Carolina or anything, but they’re pretty bad.
Orange Bowl/dual Final Fours or bust in 2011. We're going all-in.
by Kevin Meacham on Feb 16, 2010 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
To back up my point
BBState.com has replicas of the sheet the NCAA selection committee would use during their meeting.
That first column (vs. RPI 1-50) looks pretty outstanding for a bubble team, with two wins and bunch of 2-5 point losses (except Duke and the second Cincy game).
Just one loss against RPI 51-100 (Marquette), which looks pretty good too.
But Providence and Michigan are pretty clear black marks.
As an aside: How bad is LSU? Yikes. According to the RPI, they’re worse than anyone on UConn’s schedule except Colgate.
Orange Bowl/dual Final Fours or bust in 2011. We're going all-in.
by Kevin Meacham on Feb 16, 2010 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
They’re obviously bad, but just as bad as, say losing to Bradley and Utah (I’m looking at you, Illinois, a projected No. 8), or Alabama and Colorado (Baylor).
Plus ours were both away. So not bad enough to really cancel out the good wins or anything.
by UConnBlog Justin on Feb 16, 2010 7:49 PM EST up reply actions
The easiest way
If we keep winning games, we take the “decision making” variable out of the equation. Don’t leave it to the whims and what-ifs of the committee. Make it a nice, easy decision. I think if we pull a win from WVU, we’re home free.
A win over WVU
and a carefully dodged banana peel against Rutgers and we’re probably in (assuming we dodge a few more banana peels along the way).
For more than a few reasons, the idea of losing to Rutgers seems especially possible and especially unsavory.
"God dammit, Donald"
by DougoUConnPlaysFootball? on Feb 16, 2010 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
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