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Storrs goes emo

If you'll permit just a tad bit of overreaction: the stunning news that Jerome Dyson is out for the year with a torn meniscus is probably the most depressing thing to happen to UConn basketball since the loss to George Mason.

I know I exaggerate a bit claiming that Kemba Walker is better than Dyson, but Dyson's injury is an absolute disaster for a team that seemed primed to return to the Final Four.

The injury turns a national title contender/favorite into just another good team; a great perimeter defending team into an OK one, and a deep guard rotation into a shallow one.

I feel sick to my stomach. What a punch in the gut.

Some people might say that it's not as bad as I say, but I think the panic button is the proper response.

Star-divide

John Gasaway of Basketball Prospectus recently wrote a fantastic article detailing why UConn's defense has improved so much. In it, Gasaway turns his attention to Dyson, saying:

"Another response, however, is to note something very valuable about Dyson: he's Calhoun's only backcourt option who combines a prominent role in the offense with a very low turnover rate. Without Dyson, Connecticut might make a higher percentage of their shots, but they'd almost certainly take fewer shots."

Dyson is a slasher, a shooter (albeit "iffy," according to Gasaway) and (this year, anyway) has been able to avoid turning the ball over. With his spot needing to be filled by some combination Craig Austrie and Kemba Walker, we'll see if Gasaway's prediction comes true. I'm certainly not optimistic in light of the guards' performance against Syracuse yesterday.

Speaking of which, get read for lots o' zone the rest of the way and, more ominously, lots o' turnovers as the guards and Stanley Robinson force passes into Thabeet.

This is not to say that UConn is no longer a great team. They are. But they have no margin for error now. Between Walker and Austrie, at least one of them needs to step up and give starter-quality minutes. And at least one of Donnell Beverly and Scottie Haralson will need to step up to replace the off-the-bench minutes provided by Walker or Austrie.

Walker has shown that he's capable of pestering perimeter defenders (see Harris, Paul last night), and Austrie is an average-to-above-average defender, but the question is whether they can sustain that for 40 minutes every night.

On the offensive side of things, this leaves UConn in a very grim position. UConn's success will now count on Hasheem Thabeet and Jeff Adrien's ability to own the inside (a reasonable bet which will be tested against Pittsburgh) and A.J. Price's ability to create.

Make no mistake: this is now Price's offense. He'll have to play mostly at 2-guard and focus on scoring while Walker and Austrie share the PG duties. Inasmuch as UConn will need to score to win in March, Price will have to be brilliant for the next month and a half. It might be unfair to put that much weight on his shoulders, but then this is sort of an unfair situation.

Another reason to worry is depth. UConn had an almost exclusive 8-man rotation until Beverley came in last night (after Dyson's injury). Now, it's a 7-man rotation: Price, Adrien, Thabeet, Robinson, Walker, Austrie, Gavin Edwards. That is UNC-like in its shallowness.

Of course, much of this stems from the fact that three out of UConn's five freshman are unavailable, thanks to legal trouble, academic trouble and a BS string-along by the NCAA. Do you trust any of Beverley, Haralson or Jon Mandeldove to provide anything? Does Calhoun?

Dyson's injury is a game-changer. Last year, Dyson was suspended for 10 games, and UConn went on a 10-game winning streak. This year, Dyson is such a key part of the team that, barring a superhuman effort by a guard not named Price, I can't see that happening again.

At the very least, the now-Dysonless Huskies deserve a chance to prove themselves before we can officially kill off any Big East or national title hopes. After all, that chance comes in about four days in the XL Center.

But for now, this sucks. This really sucks.

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Walker will step up and do just as well. Nothing to see here, move along

by hawtin on Feb 12, 2009 8:15 PM EST reply actions  

Between the “there goes the national championship” and your bashing of the football recruits, you guys are SERIOUSLY doom and gloomers.

It’s a terrible blow. But it’s not the worst blow- these guys have lost Price, now THAT would be the killer. It’d be nice to see if Haralson can actually shoot. I guess we’re gonna find out.

If he can shoot between 30-40% out there, they’ll be fine. They can’t match what Dyson brings defensively, which was always underrated, but I think the team can cover for him on defense. This team needs the maximum number of offensive options, and that’s where I think it’s a real crippler.

by Relax Guys on Feb 12, 2009 9:22 PM EST reply actions  

Actually, I was pretty excited by the recruiting class. Maybe that didn’t come through because I’m too much of a grouchy bastard, but I think they got a few good prospects.

I’m a little suspicious of Difton because the team he played on had so much talent and because of the heavy pressure he’s already getting as a result of his four-star status (see Miller, Jarrell), but at the very least Edsall has raised the national profile of the team. Which should pay dividends in next year’s class.

But as far as Dyson is concerned, I’m in the bunker with Meacham.

Nevermind. I’m a gloomer.

by Justin Verrier on Feb 13, 2009 12:09 PM EST reply actions  

Optimism, Points Engendering Such.

Why this ain’t so bad:

1. ‘Aint’ gets caught up in spell-check on this blog, but not ain’t. Good.

2. Kemba Runner is offensively capable. To put numbers on what is said above, he shoots 50% from the field. Dyson shoots 40%. Kemba also has better free throw and 3pt percentages. That’s all mostly a product of Kemba not really looking to score except on fast breaks and easy looks, but I would think he can put up Dysonesque numbers or better with increased playing time and offensive burden.

3. A.J. Price will shoot more.

4. Craig Austrie is a winner. Every game he starts his record as a starter improves. Imagine getting to hear how Craig Austrie is 57 and 9 as a starter, even if most of those wins came as a starting freshman point guard on one of the most talented teams ever.

5. Stanley Robinson is probably the most athletic guy on the team. He took a voluntary leave of absence and worked in a sheet metal factory. He says he’s a man now. He has two children. More importantly, he’s 6’9" and can score outside the paint. I think our success rests much more on his broad shoulders than anyone else. If he can start playing 30 minutes and average 10-12 a game, which is what he should be doing by now, then being only three guards deep won’t be as big of a deal. Of course, he’s not doing that. But still. He’s a man now.

My point is, I don’t expect to be relying on Scottie already losing his Haralson and Donbev as much as people think.

by Pont on Feb 13, 2009 2:52 PM EST reply actions  

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